The most-traded SHFE tin contract (SN2602) retreated after a rapid rise during the night session, dampening activity in the spot market. [SMM Tin Morning News]

SMM Tin Morning Brief on December 26, 2025:

Futures: The most-traded SHFE tin contract (SN2602) showed a pattern of retreating after a rapid rise during the night session. It opened slightly higher, climbed to 344,000 yuan/mt, then began to fluctuate downward and closed at 337,150 yuan/mt, up 0.96% from the previous trading day.

Macro: (1) According to the China Academy of Information and Communications Technology, domestic mobile phone shipments in November 2025 reached 30.161 million units, up 1.9% YoY, including 27.614 million 5G phones (up 1.1% YoY), accounting for 91.6% of total phone shipments during the period. From January to November 2025, domestic mobile phone shipments totaled 282 million units (up 0.9% YoY), with 5G phone shipments at 244 million units (up 1.3% YoY), making up 86.6% of the total. (2) December is typically a key period for the auto market's year-end push for annual targets. However, compared to the bustling activity seen in the same period in previous years, this year's market is unusually quiet, with widespread consumer wait-and-see sentiment. Visits to nearly ten new energy brands, including Tesla, Xiaomi, Harmony Intelligent Mobility Alliance (HIMA), and Avatr, revealed generally sparse customer traffic and a somewhat sluggish atmosphere in showrooms. Staff at a Xiaomi auto store mentioned that store transactions slightly declined after entering December, with only two or three cars sold per week, and the company's "spot vehicle selection" promotion did not significantly boost store sales. In fact, since November, industry experts have widely expected that the year-end auto market would not see a tail-up trend. Growing expectations for new subsidy policies in 2026 have further strengthened consumers' willingness to wait.

Fundamentals: (1) Supply side: Most smelters are expected to maintain stable production in December. (2) Demand side: Downstream procurement remains cautious, with high prices significantly suppressing actual consumption.

Spot market: During the previous daytime session, prices continued to climb, closing near 336,000 yuan/mt. Downstream enterprises exhibited strong wait-and-see sentiment, largely suspending active procurement. After the night session opened higher, trading in the spot market became even more sluggish, with only a few downstream enterprises inquiring or placing low-price orders.

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